MeanGene Rants 1
March 2002
"America is the Persian Gulf of Wind Energy!" \
But Europe is blowing us away.
This article spells out the case pretty well for what we suspected all along. It isn't just that renewable energy has to compete in an open market. It has to compete against huge subsidies for the old-school coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear energy. (Or we could say say it has to compete against the big subsidies given to whoever was in the room drawing up the energy policy for Dick Cheney.) http://ssl.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020415&s=bivens
Well CA
seems to have the most of it installed (1600MW) and the most planned (660MW),
TX is second, but neither state has the most potential. It seems the best
places are where the Rocky Mountains give way to the plains. Idaho, Wyoming,
Colorado, Utah, Nevada. Cool map here http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html
Showing that the West won't have all the fun, MA is planning
a 420 MW wind
farm off Nantucket Island. Check out
your state, here. http://www.awea.org/projects/
But
let's not fall into thinking that America is the center of the wind universe.
"Germany as a whole now counts more than 10,000 wind turbines dispersed
over the whole country, with an output of 6,900 Megawatts. There are almost
twice as many workers employed in the wind energy industry now than in the
nuclear industry!"
(http://www.web.net/~cfre/Newsletters/news24.htm#spotlight)
The
Netherlands produce less in absolute terms (only 2200MW), but they produce 13%
of all the electricity they use this way. Spain does 20%, despite Don Quixote.
(http://planet.wwu.edu/fall01/fall01_aero.htm)
All of
Europe is in on the act. The EU total is 12,000 MW and growing. "The
installed capacity in Europe has increased by about 40% per year in the past
six years. Today wind energy projects across Europe produce enough electricity
to meet the domestic needs of 5 million people. The wind energy industry has
set a goal for 60,000 MW of wind energy capacity to be installed by 2010, which
would provide electricity of about 75 million people."
New,
utility-scale, wind projects are being built all around the United States today
with energy costs ranging from 3.9 cents per kilowatt-hour (at very windy sites
in Texas) to 5 cents or more (in the Pacific Northwest). These costs are
competitive with the direct operating costs of many conventional forms of
electricity generation now
Here's
how that compares with other forms of electricity generation. (http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Cost2001.PDF)
|
Fuel |
Levelized costs (cents/kWh) |
|
Coal |
4.8-5.5 |
|
Natural
Gas |
3.9-4.4 |
|
Hydro |
5.1-11.3 |
|
Biomass |
5.8-11.6 |
|
Nuclear |
11.1-14.5 |
|
Wind
(w/out PTC) |
4.0-6.0 |
|
Wind
(w/ PTC) |
3.3-5.3 |
(Levelized
costing calculates in current dollars all capital, fuel, and operating and maintenance costs associated
with the plant over its lifetime and
divides that total cost by the estimated output in kWh over the lifetime of the plant.)
The cost
is affected mostly by average wind speed and the size of the wind farm. The
energy a wind turbine generates grows as the cube of wind speed. The same wind
farm, all else being equal, will generate electricity at 4.8 cents with 16 mph
wind, 3.6 cents at 18 mph or 2.6 cents at 20.8 mph. Larger farms are cheaper
than smaller ones due to economies of scale.
If you
are really a geek, you can try out the Wind Turbine Power Calculator: http://www.windpower.dk/tour/wres/pow/index.htm Or even the "wind shade" effect of
large obstacles. http://www.windpower.dk/tour/wres/shelter/
And Phil
"Condor-Man" McKenna will be upset if we don't point out that wind
turbines still kill a lot of birds. http://www.nrel.gov/wind/avian.html
40%
annual growth in Europe six years running, the fastest growing form of
electricity generation worldwide throughout the 90s ... sounds pretty good.
"Global energy markets are experiencing wholesale changes as a result of
technological advancements, competitive pressures, regulatory changes and environmental
concerns," says Triax [Capital]. "Globally, $10 to $15 trillion is
expected to be invested in renewable energy projects in the next ten
years." (http://www.solaraccess.com/news/story.jsp?storyid=1405)
So who
are the big players? Can I invest? Well, most of them are Dutch, and it looks
like you can invest.
Vestas
Group - world's largest producer of wind turbines. http://www.sovereign-publications.com/vestas.htm
Nordex AG
- another Dutch company trading http://www.nordex-online.com/_e/index.html
Royal
Dutch Shell - yes, those same folks who sell you gasoline. http://www.shell.com
In the
US ...
FPL
(formerly Florida Power and Light) runs more wind farms in America than anyone
else. http://www.fplgroup.com/
GE -
they bought off Enron's Wind Energy division, which is the largest US
manufacturer of wind turbines.
Or check
out this mutual fund:
NewAlternativesfund.com http://www.newalternativesfund.com/